The fields are set for the 38th running of the Breeders’ Cup, which will be held for the second time at Del Mar. The very first running of these races “where the turf meets the surf” was four years ago in 2017, and by all measures it was heralded as a big success.

Handicapping begins in earnest now and, to aid in that endeavor, I wanted to share with you a few key insights about the Del Mar turf and dirt surfaces that should help you in your handicapping and ticket formation. Here are the most important factors to keep in mind when it comes to this special venue.

[Breeders' Cup draw: See post positions, jockeys, odds]

Two races will be run going 5 furlongs on the Del Mar turf: the Juvenile Turf Sprint and Turf Sprint. First and foremost, it is critical to focus on horses that are five- to 5.5-furlong specialists, regardless of the venue, when these races are run at the abbreviated five-furlong distance. Horses that excel at six- or 6.5-furlong turf sprints just don’t get it done at this shorter sprint distance.

If you followed the Del Mar meet this past summer, you might have noticed the tremendous bias that characterized the turf sprint races. More than 60 percent of the races were won by horses exiting post positions 1 to 3, regardless of running style. Horses coming from the outside were severely compromised. In addition, if your horse was more than two lengths off the pace leader as they hit the top of the stretch, it was going to be tough to win the race.

Make sure to give extra consideration to horses drawing on the inside. In addition, make sure your top contenders figure to be no more than a couple lengths off the pace leader as they turn for home.

As far as the European shippers are concerned, they struggle going these turf sprints stateside. Their sprint races are run on a straightaway, and the turn at Del Mar is particularly tight. As you evaluate the European contenders, make sure they are five-furlong specialists, are smaller in frame and show a good turn of foot. But in general, favor U.S.-based horses.

Though the Santa Anita and Del Mar turf courses are similar in composition, off-the-pace and closers don’t perform as well on the Santa Anita lawn as they do on the Del Mar grass. Trainers will tell you that closers who hit the board but struggled to win at Santa Anita move up big-time when they come over to compete on the Del Mar turf course.

When the Breeders’ Cup was run at Del Mar in 2017, all six turf races (including the Turf Sprint) were won by horses that closed from off the pace – mostly from mid-pack. In general, at any venue where the Breeders’ Cup is run, it is tough to wire the field in these turf races. For example, in the Mile race, you have to go back to 1992 to find the last horse to go wire to wire in that race – and it was the immortal Lure.

This past summer at Del Mar, closers accounted for essentially half of the wins, and at Santa Anita, closers won at about a 20 percent clip.

Dirt surface insights When races are run at 6 furlongs on the dirt, as on any other surface, the preferred Energy Distribution Profile at Del Mar is a pace or presser type. But that changes when you get to races that are run from 6.5 furlongs to one mile. At those distances, it is very difficult for a horse to wire the field, even when the pace is around par. With Breeders’ Cup dirt races, the pace is usually swift and pressured, making the wire-to-wire feat even more difficult to achieve. Obviously, in short fields with a dominant pace/presser type who gets away with modest fractions, a gate-to-wire win is achievable.

From a post-position standpoint, it isn’t really an issue as horses from the outside win their fair share of races at Del Mar. It is the inside part of the dirt track (especially in sprint races) that can wreak havoc on outcomes if the dead rail bias is in play. Although it doesn’t manifest as much at the start of the fall meet, my notes from the last few summer meets show that for about the first week of the meeting, you do not want a horse that draws the 1 post in a sprint race. That certainly is not a great place to be anyway in these larger Breeders’ Cup fields, but it is even more of concern when that dead rail bias is in play at Del Mar. Watch the races that are run on opening day (Thursday) and on the Friday undercard to see whether you pick up any hints of this bias being in play.

One key note on this dirt surface. It is much deeper than it was when the Breeders’ Cup was at Del Mar 4 years ago. This was in part in response to the proliferation of breakdowns at Santa Anita a few years ago. It’s not as though a horse can’t ship in and get over it, but they really need to work on it – even the horses coming in from Santa Anita – to best acclimate to this tiring surface.

With the large and contentious fields, the Breeders’ Cup always has been fertile ground for a parade of long shots that regularly hit the board. In 2017, 14 horses went off at odds of 15-1 or greater and finished in the superfecta on the Del Mar dirt and turf surfaces. Half of those long shots finished fourth, so keep that in mind as you are structuring those tickets. Most notable were Givemeaminute finishing fourth in the Juvenile at gargantuan odds of 63-1 and War Story closing the day with a eye-popping 56-1 fourth-place finish in the Classic.

Long shots won that day as well, including Bar of Gold, who was victorious in the Filly & Mare Sprint at monster odds of 66-1, and Peter Miller’s Stormy Liberal, who took down the Turf Sprint at juicy odds of 30-1.  Those two races have historically been a hotbed for board-hitting long shots. 

On the subject of long shots, I researched the last five editions of the Breeders’ Cup races and noted every 15-1 shot that finished in the superfecta. What I found is that 29 percent of the Superfecta slots were occupied by a long shot, and in some cases long shots accounted for three of the four slots. That is what makes these Breeders’ Cup races so playable.

Another interesting observation came out of this analysis. Two tracks accounted for the vast majority of next out long shots that hit the board in the Breeders’ Cup: Keeneland and Belmont. When it comes to the Juvenile and Sprint, nearly all of the long shots exited a race at Keeneland. When it comes to the Classic, however, every single one of the seven long shots that hit the board raced in New York when it came to their final prep. 

The implication for ticket building, thenm is to spread around your conviction plays, especially when it comes to fourth place in your superfecta ticket. The generous payouts are worth the additional investment. 

I hope these key insights prove to be helpful in your handicapping and in your pursuit of a big score in this year’s Breeders’ Cup, where the turf meets the surf.

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