We managed only a single, meager, and unwilling win on the Wednesday card at Keeneland, and it left us with a poor taste.

(There’s always a “but,” right?)

But…we did have the whopping exacta in race #5 which returned a tidy sum of $283.70 for each $1 played correctly. Sweet Baby James. Here’s hoping that you tagged along with us and had that return and for more than the bare minimum.

Out of the two “Key Plays of the Day,”  we had a winner and that 2nd place finisher in race #5, as well.

Certainly could have been better. Most certainly could have been worse, too.

Here’s hoping we have more success on Thursday. And…

Here’s our looks at the Thursday card:

1st: 2-2B-1A/6/1-5/3-7…This is the “baby race” of the day and will be contested out of the shoot and at the sprint distance of 4.5 furlongs over the main track. I’ll give the edge to Team Ward — the “guru” — and hope that he will finally win one of these darn things. Devious Stares (2) is a 2YO daughter of Practical Joke and is owned in partnership of the trainer and Mrs. Charlie O’Connor (of Coolmore fame). This one cost $170,000 at the 2020 KEE November Sale and has worked very well for this first start. Sire wins with .20% of those making the debut and the dam has 4 winners from 5 starters. Breeding is there. Hurricane Debbie (2B) is trained by the same group and comes in off a ince work here on April 8, as well. Dam has a winner from one starter and the rider has won 2 of the last 3 for the barn. Threat. I bet the 2-entry across the board and then box the 2-1 entry in the exactas. I will key the 2 entry over/under the 1A-6-5-3-7 in two smaller units.

2nd: 1/8-4/3-5-6/2-9/7…The first “Key Play of the Day”  comes here with Sariah Sariah (1) in this 11/16-mile event over the main track. This 4YO daughter of Tonalist comes in having hit the board in each of the last 4 outings. Won two in a row at the Fair Grounds. Gets a regular rider up. Was claimed last time out and the barn wins with .17% on the first try. I’m in. I bet the 1 across the board and then key the 1 over/under the 8-4-3-5-6-2-9 in the exactas. More with the 8-4 than the rest.

3rd: 6-4/2/5-8/3/7…Alfie Solomons (6) was claimed last time out after a near miss 2nd, but the claim was voided following the race. This 5YO gelding is back now after a year layoff. Barn wins with .25% coming from off this long a layup. Gets John Velazquez up and has a ton of speed. With a clean break, they will have to run this one down. And, at this distance? A perfect 1-for-1. Windy City Red (4) moves up in class after winning the last time out at Gulfstream Park. Another speedy type and gets a top rider up. Tyler Gaffalione has won with over .24% so far this meet. Sharp work here on April 6. Good right now. I bet the 6 across the board and then box the 6-4 in the exactas. I will key the 6-4 over/under the 2-5-8-3 in two smaller units.

4th: 5-1/6-4/7-3/2…Baby Yoda (5) is even-money in the ML, and this 4YO gelded son of Prospective comes in with two straight 2nds in a row. Both of those in Stakes company. Gets the masterful Joel Rosario up for the first time and the barn is searching for the first win of the meet. Hungry. May get fed right here. One for Richie (1) could pick up the pieces if the top pick is not ready. Rail is red hot, winning at a .22% clip at this sprint distance. Won the last time out for fun at Oaklawn Park, too. Look out here. I bet the 5 to win/place and then box the 5-1 in the exactas. I will key the 5-1 over/under the 6-4-7-3 in two smaller units.

5th: 8-1/6-4/5/7-2/9-3…Runpat (8) gets the nod for trainer Brad Cox, who is winning at a nice .27% rate so far this meet and after 11 starts. This one has run two 2nds in a row and looks to be the one to beat here. Barn wins with .28% of those making the 2nd start off the layup. Looks tough. Nabokov (1) will be making the career debut and this one cost $775,000 as a KEE September yearling in 2020. Dam has 2 winners from 4 staters and a Stakes-winner. rider is red hot, going 6-5-2 in the last 23 mounts. Works are spot on. Look out, if gets a clean break from the tough rail spot on first ask. I bet the 8 across the board and then box the 8-1 in the exactas. I will key the 8-1 over/under the 6-4-5-7-2 in two smaller units.

6th: (15)-1/6-8/(14)-11/(16)-2-5-7-(13)/9-10/3-4…The first grass race of the day will be contested at the 11/16-mile distance and this one is wide, wide, wide open. I will give the edge to Eminent Victor (15) if this gal draws in from the AE List. Impossible post, and not likely to make this field. But if she does? Can’t leave out. If she does not get in, I go dramatically and hard to the inside and I Got a Gal (1). Rail is winning at a .20% clip over this surface and this distance. Barn wins with .30% when going from two sprints into a route. Last race looked super and that was the first time getting Lasix. Barn wins with .11% when it gets a second time. Works are good. I’m in. Sold. I bet the 15 or the 1 across the board. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas — probably the 1-6-8. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 11-2 in two more smaller units. Unless the 15-14 get in. I use them instead if they do.

7th: 4/5/3-7/1/2-6…The next “Key Play of the Day”  comes here with Blue Kentucky (4). This 3YO gelded son of Include did not race well either of the last two times out. But drops considerably into the claiming ranks here an the barn wins with .16% of those getting this type of a plunge. Picks up a new rider and the run in the Sugar Bowl Stakes just three starts ago is too good to ignore. I bet the 4 across the board and then key the 4 over/under the 5-3-7-1-2 in the exactas. More with the 5 than the rest.

8th: 7/5-4-3-2/1-(8)/7…The last “Key Play of the Day”  comes here with Fluffy Socks (7). I have loved this 4YO daughter of Slumber for quite some time. She gets Lasix for the first time and will be making the 2022 debut for grass guru Chad Brown. She came off an extended layoff to nearly win the Memories of Silver Stakes in the 2021 debut. Has run very well fresh in the past and gets a super rider up. Super. I’m all in here and go bigger than usual for me. I bet the 7 across the board and double down on the win bet. I will key the 7 over/under the 5-4-3-2-1 in the exactas. More with the 5-4 than the rest.

9th: 2-8/4-10/1-6/7-9/5-3…The finale is a MSW event for the 3YO colts, and I give the edge to the Triple Crown-nomiated Cape Trafalgar (2). This one has not been a route of ground yet, but does have a nice 2nd at the sprint distance over the slop at Gulfstream Park on March 12. The barn wins with .25% when stretching out for the first time. Gets a top rider for the assignment and the jockey has won with .32% of the last 22 mounts for this barn. Wow. Wow. Wow. I’m buy. I bet the 2 across the board and then box the 2-8 in the exactas. I will key the 2 over/under the 8-4-10-1-6-7-9 in two smaller units.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene

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